By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Brown Thrasher, Audrey Carroll Audubon Sanctuary, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Very liquid sound to this birds song. Nice. Human voices and Fish crows in background.” Cows, too.
In Case You Might Miss…
- New Covid data, Covid and mortality.
- LA Fires: Misinformation.
- SEIU joins AFL-CIO.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Transition
“How Trump Came Around to Crypto — and What Crypto Wants in Return” [Bloomberg]. “Trump nominated crypto supporter Paul Atkins to replace Gensler, and that announcement helped Bitcoin climb above $100,000 for the first time. The president-elect nominated David Sacks to the newly created position of artificial intelligence and crypto czar. Trump is also creating a crypto advisory group, made up of backers of the industry. Trump said in a December Truth Social post that Bo Hines will be the executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, reporting to Sacks. Trump said he plans to have the US government keep rather than sell Bitcoin holdings seized by law enforcement, making these assets the basis of a so-called strategic Bitcoin stockpile. Trump has also said he would like all Bitcoin to be mined in the US; this promise may prove difficult to fulfill due to the reality of decentralized networks and cheaper costs of energy in other parts of the world.” • “Strategic Bitcoin” my Sweet Aunt Fanny.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission
“Science tells us that portable air filters reduce infections. It’s time for public health authorities to make this clear” [Journal of Infection and Public Health]. “Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian public health advisors and decision-makers have shared conflicted and confusing messages about the effectiveness of portable air filters (PAFs) in controlling the spread of airborne infectious diseases… Diseases such as COVID-19 are transmitted through respiratory particles that contain infectious material. If these particles come in contact with the mucous membranes of a susceptible individual, there is a risk of infection. In general, there is a dose-response relationship—the more infectious material in the air, the greater the risk of infection. Thus, any mitigation measures that remove these particles from the air (or inactivate infectious materials) will reduce the risk of transmission… This science is supported by decades of research and public health and health care practice demonstrating the effectiveness of PAFs in reducing the transmission of airborne diseases…. While evidence demonstrates that filtration reduces concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the air, this research should not have been required by public health authorities before implementation. PAFs, like other engineering interventions such as seat belts, parachutes and bridges, are designed and evaluated according to the laws of physics.” • Savage indictment of public health and hospital infection control,
Morbidity and Mortality
“The future of excess mortality after COVID-19” [Swiss Re Institute]. “Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations. This impact appears generally independent of healthcare systems and population health. This trend is evident even after accounting for shifting population sizes, and the range of reporting mechanisms and death classifications that make inter-country comparisons complex. There is also likely a degree of excess mortality under-reporting…. This represents a potential challenge for Life and Health (L&H) insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead, depending on how general population trends translate into the insured population. Ongoing excess mortality can have implications for L&H insurance claims and reserves. Excess mortality that continues to exceed current expectations may affect the long-term performance of in-force life portfolios as well as the pricing of new life policies.” And: “Our general population forecasts suggest that excess mortality will gradually tail off by 2033, to 0–3% in the US and 0–2.5% in the UK. In comparison, by our calculation excess mortality in 2023 was in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% in the UK. Under an optimistic scenario, we find that US and UK pandemic-linked excess mortality would disappear by 2028, reverting to pre-pandemic mortality expectations. Under a pessimistic scenario, we expect excess mortality to remain elevated until 2033, above pre-pandemic expectations.” • Handy chart:
How the Pandemic Increased US Deaths!
Visualized in 8 charts by @jwgale in @business1. The Covid Pandemic Fueled a 4-Year Mortality Surge in the US pic.twitter.com/H6CW6ya0sO
— Ziyad Al-Aly, MD (@zalaly) December 30, 2024
“Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Higher Than Predicted” [Actuaries Digital]. Australia. The Abstract:
In summary
- For the first eight months of 2024, against a baseline that includes anticipated COVID-19 deaths:
- total mortality was 2% higher than predicted;
- COVID-19 mortality was 70% higher than predicted;
- Non-COVID respiratory mortality was 8% higher than predicted, with pneumonia deaths 14% higher; and
- these outcomes are all statistically significant.
- There have been five deaths from COVID-19 for every death from influenza.
- Mortality from non-respiratory causes has been close to predicted.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC December 30 | Last week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC December 21 | ★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 4 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data January 9: | ★ National [6] CDC Janurary 9, 2005: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens January 6: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| ★ Positivity[9] CDC December 23: | ★ Variants[10] CDC December 23 |
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| Deaths | |
| ★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 4: | ★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 4: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) A little uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States went down to 4.1% in December of 2024 from 4.2% in the previous month, below market expectations of 4.2%.”
Manufacturing: “FAA says up to 574 Boeing 767 aircraft may require landing gear inspections” [Aerotime]. “The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced that up to 574 Boeing 767 aircraft may require landing gear inspections as part of an Airworthiness Directive (AD). The AD, issued on January 8, 2025, raised concerns over landing gear on US-registered 767-200s, 767-300s and 767-300 Freighters following an incident during maintenance. According to the FAA, the AD was ‘prompted by a report of a main landing gear (MLG) collapse event following maintenance where a grinder was operating outside of its input parameters, resulting in possible heat damage to the outer cylinder of the MLG.’”
Manufacturing: “Airbus Tops Rival Boeing with 766 Jet Deliveries in 2024” [Inc]. “Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024 and looked certain to maintain leadership of the jetmaking industry for a sixth year as arch-rival Boeing recovers cautiously from a prolonged internal crisis, company data showed.” But importantly: “Aerospace supply chains have been under pressure due in part to an exodus of experienced workers during the pandemic, with aviation competing with other sectors to recruit new labour.”
Tech: “Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01” [Rodney Brooks]. Fun stuff. Here is a handy chart of failed predictions for robot cars:
Legend: Dates in parens: When prediction was made. Dates in blue: When prediction will come true. Pink shading: Wrong prediction. Orange arrow retraction.
And the kicker:
Pro tip: Think about this history of industry prognostications about fully autonomous driving being just around the corner when you read today’s prognostications about LLMs taking jobs, en masse, in the next couple of years, or humanoid robots being dirt cheap and being able to learn how to do any human manual task real real soon now. You know you have seen this movie before…
Very much worth reading in full (The author is Panasonic Professor of Robotics emeritus at MIT).
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 32 Fear (previous close: 32 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 26 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 8 at 8:59:48 PM ET.
Thank you, Mr. Presidents:
It’s over for Gavin pic.twitter.com/kTPAOU96uA
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 10, 2025
Lord knows I hold no brief for California Democrats (“Everything is like CalPERS”). But this is so over-the-top my tendency is to discount any Republican coverage of the California fires to zero.
“California wildfires: Police shoot down celebrities floating arson theories” [FOX]. “‘THERE IS an ARSONIST here in LA,’ actor Henry Winkler wrote on Wednesday on X. ‘May you be beaten you unrecognizable !!! The pain you have caused !!!’ Actress Alison Sweeney simply responded, ‘agreed.’ Singer Chris Brown took to his Instagram stories on Thursday and wrote, ‘Someone starting these fires. S— don’t add up.’ ‘Dancing with the Stars’ pro Peta Murgatroyd shared a tweet that was originally posted by political and cultural media personality Xaviaer DuRousseau that reads: ‘LOS ANGELES / SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THERE ARE AT LEAST FIVE MEN GOING AROUND IN SKI MASKS STARTING FIRES. KEEP AN EYE OUT.” But: “Despite the various claims, the Los Angeles Police Department told Fox News Digital, “We have not received any reports of arson.’” • I don’t know why we’d believe actors on this, any more than, say, mainstream economists. It seems we have a tendency to project human agency…
“Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?” [New York Times]. • Never have I felt happier to know of Betteridge’s Law.
“The Labor Movement Just Notched Two Big Wins” [The New Republic]. “One so seldom has the opportunity to report good news about labor unions that when two good things happen in the space of 24 hours that’s a triumph. The first is a rebuke to the incoming Trump administration. The second is an unacknowledged favor to it (but, more importantly, to the nation as well). Item One is that the Service Employees International Union, reversing a bad decision 20 years ago to disaffiliate with the AFL-CIO, is rejoining the labor federation. Even Andy Stern, who as SEIU president took the union out of the AFL-CIO and sought (in the end, unsuccessfully) to build a rival federation called Change to Win with the Teamsters and five smaller unions, said Wednesday that this is ‘an appropriate time to unite SEIU’s strength with other unions.’ The move will expand AFL-CIO membership from nearly 13 million to nearly 15 million. (Change to Win was a bust. It lost most of its affiliates, stopped calling itself a labor federation, and now operates as something called the Strategic Organizing Center.) Item Two is that the International Longshoremen’s Association, or ILA, which represents dockworkers on the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, reached a deal on a new contract, averting a second dockworker strike. The first strike, in October, lasted three days before a wage deal was reached under heavy pressure on management from the Biden White House, with further negotiations postponed until after the presidential election.”
“Scientists mystified by massive structures found deep beneath the Pacific Ocean” [StudyFinds]. “Miles beneath the Pacific Ocean, in a region of Earth’s mantle where conventional wisdom says nothing unusual should exist, scientists have discovered something extraordinary. Using innovative technology to analyze seismic waves, researchers have identified massive structures that challenge fundamental theories about how our planet formed and evolved. It’s as if we’ve discovered a new geological continent – not on Earth’s surface, but deep within it.” • R’lyeh?
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